Optimal Determination of Long-term and Mid-term Contracts for a Hydropower Producer Based on Stochastic Programming

In an electricity market,a major concern of hydropower producer is the profit uncertainty caused by uncertainty in reservoir inflow and day-ahead market prices.A long-term/mid-term contracts determination model based on stochastic linear programming is proposed.Scenario tree models are used to represent uncertainty in reservoir inflow and day-ahead market prices based on different constructing methods.Forward contracts decisions and day-ahead market trading decisions are recognized as different stage decisions in a stochastic programming framework.Through the comparison with expected value model,the advantage of higher revenue is guaranteed for considering the influence of uncertainty.In addition,through the comparison with a different stochastic programming model,the similarity of influence on forward contracts decisions and revenue further verifies the availability of the proposed stochastic linear programming model,and provides reference for long-term/mid-term contracts determination.