Revisiting the 1877 Cataclysmic Lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano by a Cellular Automata Model and Implications for Future Events

Simulations1 of natural hazards by computer is a powerful tool to be used for mitigation of environmental risks. Here, we present our semi-empirical Cellular Automata model LLUNPIY for simulations of lahars and its extension to primary lahars. This version of LLUNPIY accounts for triggering by pyroclastic bombs and has been successfully validated by the simulations of the 1877 cataclysmic lahars of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador); a likely occurrence of a similar disaster was simulated considering today's environmental conditions.