Monitoring Karenia brevis blooms in the Gulf of Mexico using satellite ocean color imagery and other data

Abstract Harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Karenia brevis are a recurrent problem in the Gulf of Mexico, with nearly annual occurrences on the Florida southwest coast, and fewer occurrences on the northwest Florida and Texas coasts. Beginning in 1999, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued the Gulf of Mexico HAB Bulletins to support state monitoring and management efforts. These bulletins involve analysis of satellite imagery with field and meteorological station data. The effort involves several components or models: (a) monitoring the movement of an algal bloom that has previously been identified as a HAB (type 1 forecast); (b) detecting new blooms as HAB or non-HAB (type 2); (c) predicting the movement of an identified HAB (type 3); (d) predicting conditions favorable for a HAB to occur where blooms have not yet been observed (type 4). The types 1 and 2 involve methods of bloom detection requiring routine remote sensing, especially satellite ocean color imagery and in situ data. Prediction (types 3 and 4) builds on the monitoring capability by using interpretative and numerical modeling. Successful forecasts cover more than 1000 km of coast and require routine input of remotely sensed and in situ data. The data sources used in this effort include ocean color imagery from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor/OrbView-2 satellite and processed using coastal-specific algorithms, wind data from coastal and offshore buoys, field observations of bloom location and intensity provided by state agencies, and forecasts from the National Weather Service. The HAB Bulletins began in coordination with the state of Florida in autumn of 1999 and included K. brevis bloom monitoring (type 1), with limited advisories on transport (type 3) and the detection of blooms in new areas (type 2). In autumn 2000, we improved both the transport forecasts and detection capabilities and began prediction of conditions favorable for bloom development (type 4). The HAB Bulletins have had several successes. The state of Florida was advised of the potential for a bloom to occur at the end of September 2000 (type 4), and the state was alerted to the position of blooms in January 2000 and October 2001 in areas that had not been previously sampled (type 3). These successful communications of HAB activity allowed Florida agencies responsible for shellfish management and public health to respond to a rapidly developing event in a timely, efficient manner.