Modeling for Strategy Development: Societal Trends and Dynamics Between Transport And Spatial Development

This contribution describes a system dynamics modeling approach for exploring the influence of social trends on dynamics interactions between transport behavior and spatial development in Switzerland. It aims at informing strategy development at the national level and at enhancing goal alignment between different policy sectors. While considerable knowledge about normative objectives of sustainable transport has been elaborated, there is a lack of knowledge about dynamic interactions between transport needs, societal trends, and spatial development. Hence, the study aims at enhancing system understanding and closing the identified knowledge gap as well as at enabling multi-loop institutional learning in strategy design. Within the strategic management process, the modelling approach helps to develop a common vocabulary and an effective basis for communicating complex and sometimes paradoxical conditions and strategy options (Georgantzas 2003) (Senge and Sterman 1992; Sterman 2000) (Morecroft 1988).