Prediction of Heating Energy Consumption and Analysis of Energy Saving Potential in Northern Urban Areas of China

A classified energy consumption statistics method is established to analyze and predict the future energy consumption of heating in northern China. Firstly, according to the energy intensity and proportion of central heating and decentralized heating, combined with the building area of cities and towns in northern provinces, the heating energy consumption in 2018~2035 is predicted. Then the energy saving potential of heating is analyzed by the scenario assumption. The results show that controlling energy consumption intensity has obvious energy saving effect on heating in northern towns of China. If the intensity and proportion of heating energy consumption are regulated, the peak of total heating energy consumption in the northern region will appear in 2030, reaching 265 million tce.