Econometric Models of Armed Forces Enlistment Levels

Abstract : This study has had two primary objectives. First, to conduct a detailed review of the major, past, time-series analyses which covered the 1958- 1965 time frame, attempting to discern differences among them in methodology, time intervals, and in the data used. This review was followed by an attempt to reconcile some of these differences and to reproduce these analyses using a common data base and a more nearly standardized set of variable specifications. The second objective was to attempt a pooled, time series cross-sectional analysis of enlistments. This was accomplished for certain preferred enlistment groups for the Army and Navy using nine census regions and five yearly time intervals (1970-1974). The results of this model were to be compared to prior modeling efforts. Finally, the significance of these studies was reviewed in the context of the enlistment environment of the mid-1970's and forward into the 1980's.