A preliminary sensitivity analysis of the coupled diffusion and chemistry model

The sensitivity of the coupled chemistry/diffusion model's outputs to a wide range of variation of the model's independent variables has been investigated. It is shown that the efficiency with which the now catalytic cycle destroys ambient O3 is extremely sensitive to the amount of NO emitted and to the relative rates of turbulent diffusion and chemical reactions. For representative conditions in the stratosphere, a tenfold variation of either the turbulence intensity or the reaction rate constant or the source strength can vary the efficiency from 1% to 50%. If the duration of Phase 3 is a significant fraction of the total residence time of the plume, then these efficiency variations can alter O3 depletion rates by more than a factor of two. These results, therefore, point toward those variables which must be accurately defined or measured if one is to adequately predict the effect of SST operations on the ambient inventory of O3 in the lower stratosphere.