Elective neck dissection versus positron emission tomography–computed tomography–guided management of the neck in clinically node‐negative early oral cavity cancer: A cost–utility analysis

BACKGROUND In early oral cavity cancer, elective neck dissection (END) for the clinically node-negative (cN0) neck improves survival compared with observation. This paradigm has been challenged recently by the use of positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) imaging in the cN0 neck. To inform this debate, we performed an economic evaluation comparing PET-CT-guided therapy with routine END in the cN0 neck. METHODS Patients with T1-2N0 lateralized oral tongue cancer were analyzed. A Markov model over a 40-year time horizon simulated treatment, disease recurrence, and survival from a US health care payer perspective. Model parameters were derived from a review of the literature. RESULTS The END strategy was dominant, with a cost savings of $1576.30 USD, an increase of 0.055 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), a net monetary benefit of $4303 USD, and a 0.22 life-year advantage. END was sensitive to variation in cost and utilities in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. PET-CT became the preferred strategy when decreasing occult nodal disease to 18% and increasing the negative predictive value (NPV) of PET-CT to 89% in 1-way sensitivity analyses. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, assuming a cost effectiveness threshold of $50,000 USD/QALY, END was dominant in 64% of simulations and cost effective in 69.8%. CONCLUSION END is a cost-effective strategy compared with PET-CT in patients who have node-negative oral cancer. Although lower PET standardized uptake value thresholds would result in fewer false negatives and improved NPV, it is still uncertain that PET-CT would be cost effective, as this would likely result in more false positive tests.