A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology Concept

Abstract : The purpose of this document is to demonstrate a Bayesian analysis of the flood frequency hydrology concept as a formal probabilistic-based means by which to coherently combine and also evaluate the worth of different types of additional data (i.e., temporal, spatial, and causal) in a flood frequency analysis. This approach is responsive to the stated ultimate goal of existing U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) policy guidance, which is probabilistic analysis of all key variables, parameters, and components of flood damage reduction studies (USACE 2006). This objective will be accomplished by independently revisiting components of an example originally profiled by Viglione et al. (2013). This technical note will also include a brief discussion of some potential opportunities for future related research and development.