Deal watch: Valuation benefits of structure-enabled drug discovery
2011
Valuations of projects in the pharmaceutical industry rely heavily on discounted cash flow methodology, using decision-tree analysis to account for the high attrition rates at each stage of the pipeline — particularly in transitions between clinical trial phases. Increasingly, useful data are becoming available for these attrition rates, which take into account molecule type, originality, therapy area and developer size, and cover Phase I trials through to (and beyond) market approval. However, the discovery and preclinical stages are poorly addressed by current publicly available data.
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