Technology adoption: Hysteresis and absence of lock-in
2016
We introduce a simple model of technology adoption with overlapping generations of players. Technologies generate network effects, and players are both backward- and forward-looking. We use results from the supermodular games literature to guarantee equilibrium existence and uniqueness. In line with the empirical literature, the equilibrium adoption path exhibits hysteresis and technologies cannot lock-in. We characterize the expected time of adoption, which can be seen as a measure of technology dominance.
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