Transportation network models for energy supply analysis. Volume 2. Methodology and scenario. Final report. [USA]

This report presents the findings of an analysis of transportation network changes and their effect on energy supply. The major emphasis was to develop computer capabilities for forecasting energy transportation costs and to determine the impact of technology and network structural changes on energy transport supply. Anticipated energy transportation performance for three specific scenarios, for the years 1980, 1990, and 2000, was examined, both to investigate the ability of the network to accommodate the future fuel transportation needs of the electric utilities and to predict changes in transportation cost, time, and energy use over this horizon. The analysis revealed that coal transportation costs, in real terms, will increase one or two percent per year over the next twenty years, and that substantial investment in new transportation capacity will be required to accommodate anticipated coal movements. Other volumes in this series include: Volume 1 - executive summary; Volume 3 - transportation network model user's guide and documentation; Volume 4 - transportation network model support programs; Volume 5 - appendixes.