Incorporating a pharmacometric model-based meta-analysis into a health economic microsimulation model of COPD

• Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by chronically poor airflow that worsens over time and leads to exacerbations. • Severity of disease is often categorized into GOLD stages using thresholds of %FEV1, which is the percentage of normal FEV1, given body size, age, race and sex. • The natural progression of disease results in decreased %FEV1 over time. • Pharmacologic interventions may decrease exacerbations and slow FEV1 decline • The change observed for a given intervention may vary based on the exact nature of the clinical trial. • Pharmacoeconomic models are often used to combine disease characteristics with treatment effects to estimate outcomes. • Pharmacometric model-based meta-analysis (PMBMA) is a type of meta-regression which employs non-linear models estimated on trial-level data to relate patient and trial characteristics, dosing, surrogate markers, and outcomes effects of treatment.