Estimating potential disaster waste generation for pre-disaster waste management

The paper discusses development of a method for estimating disaster waste that can be potentially generated by a natural disaster in the future for pre-disaster waste management. In particular, this research focuses on micro-disaster waste originating from household consumer durables. We documented the number of household consumer durables and built a mass per unit database of major consumer durables using web-based and statistical surveys. We also estimated present and future figures of disaster waste that can be generated in the study area. The estimated total amount of disaster waste that could be generated in 2015 was 24.1 kt (18.1–29.8 kt) and 108 kt (81.8–133 kt) for Kobe City and Ise-Shima region, respectively. The total quantities of TV sets, air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines generated in Kobe and Ise-Shima will range between 10.9 and 22.8 kt (247,000–545,000 units) in 2015, and 10.7 kt to 22.8 kt (249,000–550,000 units) in 2035. The quantity estimated for 2015 is equal to 61 % of the annual processing capacity of Plant A, Japan’s leading home appliances recycling plant. Finally, we discussed the contribution of the estimation results and geographic information systems in future recycling planning.