Study of the threshold for the POT method based on hindcasted significant wave heights of tropical cyclone waves in the South China Sea

Abstract. An assessment of extreme significant wave heights is performed in the South China Sea (SCS), which is crucial for the coastal and offshore engineering in this area. Two significant factors influencing the assessment are the initial database and the assessing method. The initial database is a basic for assessment, and the assessing method is used to extrapolate appropriate return significant wave heights based on this database during a period. In this study, a 40-year (1975–2014) hindcasted significant wave height of tropical cyclone waves is adopted as the initial database. Based on this database, the peak significant wave height of every tropical cyclone wave is directly extracted as the initial sample; the independent and identically distributed assumption is satisfied; and the interference for the selection of the sample is avoided. The peak over threshold (POT) method with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model is employed to extract the sufficiently large and high sample for model estimation. The peak excesses over a sufficiently high value (i.e., threshold) are fitted; thus, the return significant wave heights are highly dependent on the threshold. To determine the unique threshold for the POT method, characteristics of tropical cyclone waves are researched. The research results reveal that the separation value shown in the distribution of the initial sample is suitable for sampling in the SCS. Because the separation value is within the stable threshold range and the asymptotic tail approximation and estimation uncertainty are reasonable, the selected threshold is suitable and the corresponding return significant wave height is reliable.