Systems analysis of spent fuel management in Japan, (I). Projection of material balances and storage needs

Spent fuel accumulation in the future and its appropriate management strategy for Japan is analyzed by SFTRACE (Spent Fuel Storage, TRAnsportation and Cost Evaluation System) is introduced, which consists of 3 sub-models; (1) the economic cost data base for spent fuel storage technologies, (2) the long-range simulation of reactor mix and plutonium (Pu) utilization, and (3) the detailed simulation of spent fuel management strategies. The long-range simulation sub-model presents a macroscopic overview on how much amount of spent fuel stockpile should be addressed nationwide at a certain time point. A preliminary calculation shows that the spent fuel storage needs in Japan to the year 2050 will vary significantly, from a decrease towards zero or a continuous increase up to 20,000-25.000 tHM. The sub-model for spent fuel management simulation is the tool to demonstrate nationwide strategies to deal with spent fuel accumulation, either at each power station site or a number of centralized facilities in the given time horizon, with associated needs of transportation. An illustrative analysis shows trade-off relationship among factors involved in spent fuel management strategies, such as between away from reactor (AFR) storage capacity and overall transportation requirements, which vividly demonstrates the usefulness of the integrated analytic tool.