Assessing the policy scenarios for the Ecosystem Water Food Energy (EWFE) nexus in the Mediterranean region

Abstract Increasing demand and the current unbalanced sectorial attribution of natural resources induce drastic depletion of natural capital. There is a need for bridging sectoral policies into interdisciplinary sustainable management strategies in the Mediterranean region. The complex interactions between ecosystems, food, energy, and water sectors are calling for an integrated approach for supporting impact assessments and decision-making. We aimed to investigate the coherence among the sectoral policies, either supporting or conflicting with each other, on cross-cutting strategies and their impacts on ecosystem and their services. We address ecosystem services as a fourth component besides energy, water, and food sectors in the nexus approach. We collected expert opinions on eleven sectoral policies that cover different disciplines (water, agriculture, energy, economy, and environment). Based on the opinion of the experts, we developed several multi-criteria analyses (MCA) to assess sectoral policy impacts on cross-sectoral strategic targets. Considerable consistency was found in ranking the eleven policies when considering using nexus or cross-cutting strategies criteria, or when considering positive or negative impacts. The EWFE nexus dimension allowed to better distinguish potential synergies or conflicts between sector policies because it provided a framework in which the role of ecosystem service was more explicit. Interestingly, restoring ecosystem and green infrastructures policy ranks among the top policies in all MCAs but according to the experts its probability of successful implementation is among the lowest. The results show that sustainable use of ecosystem services and conservation of the biodiversity are an indispensable pillar to achieve successfully sectoral development goals.