Foreign Currency Debt and the Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Rising U.S. Interest Rates

Rising U.S. interest rates impact emerging economies through capital outflows and currency depreciations. For those with flexible exchange rates, the appropriate monetary policy response weighs the traditional competitiveness effect with a balance sheet effect created by the presence of foreign currency denominated debt (liability dollarization). This paper presents a basic Keynesian macro model that incorporates this balance sheet effect and demonstrates that it significantly complicates the monetary policy response to depreciations. Without full knowledge of the size of these competing effects, the central bank can make large mistakes in setting interest rates.