Storm Surges and High Waves in Ise Bay Caused by Potential Typhoons Based on the SRES A1B Scenario

This study aims at investigating space and time-distributions of possible maximum storm surges and high waves in Ise Bay caused by potential typhoons based on the SRES A1B scenario. Initial fields of 50 potential typhoons were provided by using potential vorticity bogussing scheme of a tropical cyclone. Then, the distributions over the whole area of Ise Bay under the 50 initial fields were predicted by using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model. The results show that all storm tides in Nagoya Port caused by the 50 potential typhoons exceed 3.5 m which is the largest storm tide ever recorded in Japan and that its maximum value reaches 6.9 m. Moreover, it was found that the storm surge of 3.6 m and the significant wave height of 6.0 m occur in Chubu Centrair International Airport at the same time.