Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments

The FoLDS framework presented in this paper is set up to develop scenarios for forested landscapes with a transparent connection between the broad-scale developments in socio-economic factors and the ecosystem services provided. The forests that provide these ecosystem services are managed by a multitude of forest owners. Different forest owners have their own objectives and will thus adjust their forest management differently to socio-economic developments. The FoLDS framework breaks down the connection from socio-economic developments to the landscape level in three steps. In the first step, a structure is provided for deciding on scenarios combining the socio-economic factors that have most influence on forest owners. In the second step, the scenarios are translated to the distribution of forest management approaches in the landscape by invoking a behavioural matrix of forest owner types and forest management decisions. The third step involves the implementation of these forest management approaches in a forest modelling tool that is tailored to the specific landscape at hand. The results of these calculations are then translated to a set of indicators for the ecosystem services of interest. A survey among researchers experienced with the FoLDS framework indicates that there is an added value in systematically including both qualitative and quantitative scenario methods for forested landscapes.