RICE PRICE MODELING IN SIX PROVINCE OF JAVA ISLAND USING VARMAX MODEL

Rice is an important food commodity in Indonesia because it is not only a main food but also social commodity, and has influence in politic stabilities and economic growth in Indonesia. Based on this condition is showed that everything about rice especially rice price has social economic impact in Indonesia. Factors that influence the domestic rice price in Indonesia are real exchange value, domestic corn price, and basic rice price This research aims to create models of rice price monthly data from six province in Java to real exchange value from 2007 until 2014 by using multivariate time series modeling approach with covariate, that is VARMAX (Vector ARIMAX) model. The results show that rice price in West Java, DI Yogyakarta, and Banten are influenced by rice price in DKI Jakarta, Central Java, and East Java, and real exchange value. Based on RMSE value, the best model is using VECMX(2,1) model. Keywords : ARIMA, VARMA, VARMAX