How Weather Retain Migrants? Evidence from Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Data

Accompanied with the rapid development of economy and expansion of urbanization, China has experienced a soar growth of floating population. The long-term residence tendency of such migrants is crucial to local citizenization, which is a social process of mobility, residency, and integration. Weather, as a primary natural amenity, has significant influences on urban residents’ physiology and psychology, which may further affect migrants’ long-term residence tendency. Our research applies logit regression model to analyze the effects of weather on migrants’ willingness to stay long-term in cities. With the fixed effects of hometown provinces controlled, the results show that migrants have highest long-term residence tendency for a city whose average annual temperature is 13 °C or 22 °C in terms of average summer temperature. Higher winter temperature, meanwhile, is preferred. As for other weather attributes, cities with strong wind are not welcome and annual rainfall in median level are most favorable for migrants. Besides, through heterogeneous test, we document that the results differ in terms of age cohorts, gender, marital status, as well as wealth status. Our research testifies the existence of environmental poverty trap and suggest urban government to pay attention.