Оценка климатогенной угрозы распространения таежного клеща Ixodes persulcatus на территории России и соседних стран в начале XXI века

A statistical assessment is given and schematic maps of the spatial distribution of the climatogenic hazard of the taiga tick Ixodes persulcatus distribution in Russia and several neighboring countries in 1971-1980 and 2001-2010 are constructed. The hazard assessment was made using a previously developed original method based on the principles of statistical modeling. The regularities of the spatial distribution of the degree of climatogenic hazard of the development of taiga tick populations within tick's geographic range are shown: the maximum degree of hazard characterizes the central parts of the range; the hazard decreases closer to the borders. The changes in the climatogenic hazard of the taiga tick distribution in the second period with respect to the first are calculated. A significant increase in the hazard of the taiga tick populations development in the second period compared to the first one in the greater part of the range, especially in its northern part, has been established due to climate change. At the same time, in the southwestern part of the geographic range and in some other parts of it, there was a decrease in the climatogenic hazard of distribution.