FORECASTING MEDICAL NET DISCOUNT RATES

Determining the present value of future medical costs is an important issue for a variety of public and private entities. This article examines the time-series properties of medical net discount rates and considers the implications for forecasting. The article provides evidence that the standard autoregressive moving average forecasting model may be improved by modeling the time-varying volatility characteristics of the medical net discount rates. Copyright 2003 The Journal of Risk and Insurance.