Association of Intensive Endoscopic Screening Burden With Gastric Cancer Detection.

Importance The rapidly increasing number of gastric cancer examinations performed over a short period might influence screening performance. Accessing the association between calendar month and gastric cancer detection rates might improve policy and guide institutional support. Objective To evaluate the association between the increased number of examinations over a certain period and gastric cancer detection rates among a large population included in the Korean National Cancer Screening Program (KNCSP). Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective, population-based cohort study used data from the KNCSP comprising 26 765 665 men and women aged 40 years or older who participated in the screening program between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Exposures Gastric cancer screening with endoscopy. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was monthly gastric cancer detection rates in the KNCSP. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the association between the screening month and detection rates. Results In total, 21 535 222 individuals underwent endoscopy (mean [SD] age, 55.61 [10.61] years; 11 761 709 women [54.62%]). The quarterly number of participants was the highest in the last quarter of the study period (2013-2014: 4 094 951 [41.39%], 2015-2016: 4 911 629 [42.19%]); this proportion was 2.48 to 2.84 times greater than that of the first quarter. Cancer detection rates were the lowest in December (2013-2014: 0.22; 95% CI, 0.22-0.23; 2015-2016: 0.21; 95% CI, 0.21-0.22); this was approximately a 40.0% to 45.0% reduction compared with the rates in January. The age group was the significant factor for monthly detection rates. After adjustment for the age group and taking account of the number of screenings, the estimated coefficient range for the screening month was negative and the detection rate in December was significantly different than in January for both the consequent cycles (2013-2014: -0.05 to -0.18; P < .001; and 2015-2016: -0.06 to -0.19; P < .001). In the multivariable logistic model, the association of calendar month with detected cancer remained after adjusting for other confounding factors (December, 2013-2014: odds ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.87; P < .001; 2015-2016: odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this cohort study suggest that the workload of endoscopists increased with the increasing number of examinations toward the end of the year, as demonstrated by the decreased cancer detection rates. These findings may help to improve gastric cancer detection rates of screening programs by controlling the monthly screening number and policy modifications.