Crime concentration in Perth CBD: a comparison of officer predicted hot spots, data derived hot spots and officer GPS patrol data

ABSTRACTIn an applied criminology context, recent meta-analyses and randomized control trials have demonstrated the benefits of targeting police patrols at hot spots or concentrations of street level crime and disorder. This study asked a group of 79 police officers from Perth to make a prediction, based on their experience, of where hot spots of crime would occur in the near future. Officer-defined hot spots were then compared with hot spots derived from police crime data over the preceding 24 month period. Finally, officer patrol time was tracked using a GPS-enabled smart phone and overlayed against both types of hot spot. This analysis indicates that police officers should be supported with hot spot mapping tools which identify data derived micro-places with persistent issues. Analysis also reveals officers patrol both their own and data-derived hot spots regularly; however, they only stay for a matter of a few minutes. These short stays are contrary to best evidence, which dictates officer patrols in ...