Modeling Educational Success of First Nations Students in Canada: Community Level Perspectives

Canadian assessments of First Nation and Aboriginal education lack any real modelling of reasons for the particular patterns of attainment — it is this void that we wish to fill. This paper examines educational attainment in First Nations communities using combined data from the 1996 Census and Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development Education Survey for the school year 1995/1996, aggregated to the band level, for registered and non-registered Indian and Inuit stu- dents who live on reserve in Canada. Multiple sequential regression analysis is used to model the educational success of grade 12 and 13 students with community level characteristics, including an isolation variable, school type variable, demographic variables, economic variables, and human capital variables. We use three measures of educational success: the age appropriate rate, gradu- ate rate, and withdrawal rate. It is shown that the community level variables are similar in their explanatory power of educational success; however, the effects of variables within blocks on meas- ures of educational success differ. The demography and human capital blocks play a particularly important role for all three measures of educational success. Additional analysis includes an exam- ination of standardized regression weights. The paper discusses research and policy implications and articulates future avenues for research.