The uneven expansion of electricity supply in India: The logics of clientelism, incrementalism and maximin

Abstract This study examines the recent massive expansion of electricity supply in India. With data from over 120,000 observations relating to households across the country in 2014 and 2019, we describe the rapid but uneven increases in hours of supply. We compare three distinct logics of public service delivery that may account for different rates of improvement in electricity supply - the logics of clientelism, incrementalism and maximin. The clientelist logic posits that state-level elected representatives target investments toward local areas where they hold small margins of support to improve their chances of re-election. According to the logic of incrementalism, policymakers focus on policies that are closely aligned with existing policies, which implies that supply increases most in locations where surrounding areas have relatively good electricity supply. The maximin logic, by contrast, posits that the greatest improvements take place in locations that previously had the poorest supply. The evidence supports each of the three logics to some extent, but by far the strongest evidence supports the maximin logic.