Dynamics Mechanism of Vulnerability for Petroleum Enterprises

This article analyses the dynamics mechanism of international petrochemical enterprises vulnerability and select the key factor of resources to establish a nonlinear dynamical model, which discovering the internal binding relationship between the number of big petrochemical enterprises vulnerability, the petroleum shortage ratio (D) and the petroleum occupancy ratio of the biggest enterprise (q). The results show that, as D>q, the petroleum shortage ratio exceeds the occupancy ratio of the biggest international petrochemical enterprise in the international petroleum resource market, the following rules and characteristics exist in the evolution of petrochemical enterprises:(1) The biggest enterprise in the petrochemical system will inevitably decline. With petroleum shortage increasing, following the decline of the biggest petrochemical enterprise will be the second, the third-biggest petrochemical enterprises and so on. The number of big decline petrochemical enterprise will increase with the increase of the value of D/q. The time for the petrochemical enterprises to go decline will be from 50 to 500 days. (2) After an incident of petroleum shortage, the surviving petrochemical enterprises will go through three stages: (A) resisting stage. (B) resumption stage. (C) stable stage. The international petrochemical industry will strictly observe the even-odd or odd-even number symmetry law. If the shortage of petroleum leads to the decline of odd-number petrochemical enterprises, after the adaptability and stability, the petrochemical enterprise system will obey the even-odd number symmetry law, i.e. the former ordinal number petrochemical enterprises become bigger. If the decline petrochemical enterprise in this system is ranked even-number, after the adaptability and stability, the petrochemical enterprise will obey the odd - even number symmetry law, i.e. the former odd numbered petrochemical enterprise become bigger, but those former even numbered get smaller. We think that a petrochemical enterprise will continually develop and grow stronger in the petroleum competition, only if it seizes the petroleum shortage ratio and the occupancy of the biggest enterprise in the petroleum resource market, understands the even-odd or odd-even number symmetry law in the petroleum economical system and positions itself correctly.