Hawaii Play Fairway Analysis: Discussion of Phase 1 Results

Phase 1 of a Department of Energy funded project to assess the probability of geothermal resource potential across the State of Hawaii was recently completed. This project: (1) compiled all legacy and current geological, geophysical, and geochemical data relevant to Hawaii’s geothermal resource; (2) analyzed and ranked these datasets in terms of their relevance to geothermal heat, fluid, and permeability; (3) developed and applied a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the ranks and produce probability models that map out Hawaii’s geothermal resource potential; (4) developed a method to assess confidence in the probability values; and (5) assessed what we term development viability in areas of interest across the state. Here, we summarize the project methodology and present maps that highlight both relatively high prospect areas as well as areas that lack enough data (low confidence) to make an adequate assessment. This presentation will: discuss the rationale for using the datasets incorporated in the Hawaii play fairway analysis; show how the probability modeling can be adapted to other regions and other types of resources; and suggest a path for future exploration activities in Hawaii.