Wheat drought tolerance in the field is predicted by amino acid responses to glasshouse-imposed drought

: Water limits crop productivity, so selecting for a minimal yield gap in drier environments is critical to mitigate against climate change and land-use pressure. We investigated the responses of relative water content (RWC), stomatal conductance, chlorophyll content, and metabolites in flag leaves of commercial wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars to three drought treatments in the glasshouse and in field environments. We observed strong genetic associations between glasshouse-based RWC, metabolites, and yield gap-based drought tolerance (YDT; the ratio of yield in water-limited versus well-watered conditions) across 18 field environments spanning sites and seasons. Critically, RWC response to glasshouse drought was strongly associated with both YDT (r2=0.85, P<8E-6) and RWC under field drought (r2=0.77, P<0.05). Moreover, multiple regression analyses revealed that 98% of genetic YDT variance was explained by drought responses of four metabolites: serine, asparagine, methionine, and lysine (R2=0.98; P<0.01). Fitted coefficients suggested that, for given levels of serine and asparagine, stronger methionine and lysine accumulation was associated with higher YDT. Collectively, our results demonstrate that high-throughput, targeted metabolic phenotyping of glasshouse-grown plants may be an effective tool for selection of wheat cultivars with high field-derived YDT.