Risk Assessment of Distribution System with wind power forecast based on Markov Model

Integration of renewable resources based on distributed generation(DG) poses risks on distribution system. A risk assessment scheme of distribution system with uncertainty of wind power is proposed. The approaches are segmented into three parts: wind power forecast, island division and risk assessment. The hourly wind power forecast based on Markov model with simplicity, efficiency and accuracy is the premise of risk assessment. Then two island types(live island and dead island) are distinguished on the basis of island division under the condition of probabilistic line fault. Additionally, loss of load is selected as the risk indicator, and two levels of risk assessment of node risk and distribution system risk are put forward to analyze the reliability of the system. Finally, the results obtained from 33-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed method and the accurate analysis of node and system risks.