The effect of ambient temperature fluctuations on Culicoides biting midges population dynamics and activity in dairy farms: a longitudinal study.

The effect of climatic factors on the presence of Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) was previously studied. Nevertheless, lack of laboratory rearing data hampers species-specific prediction of weather fluctuations effect on population size. To determine fluctuations in population size in the field, we recorded Culicoides and other Nematocerans in seven Israeli dairy farms over two-years (2011-2012) and analysed the association of their dynamics with fluctuations in ambient temperature and total rainfall. In six farms, the most abundant species were Culicoides imicola Kieffer and Culicoides schultzei (Enderlein) gp., primarily composed of parous females, and in one farm Culicoides obsoletus (Meigen) gp., mostly nulliparous females, were dominant. While the total number of insects was similar in both years, Culicoides numbers were significantly higher in 2012, but appeared later in the season and reached a higher peak. A multi-variable linear regression model demonstrated positive association of C. imicola and C. schultzei numbers with the monthly multi-annual ambient temperature and its specific deviation, but not with monthly rainfall. C. obsoletus populations peaked at spring and sharply decreased when temperature exceeded 20 °C, and were best modelled by adding quadratic terms. Weather-specific estimation of population size under field conditions may enable to predict outbreaks intensity of Culicoides-borne viruses.