Prediction of the thermospheric and ionospheric responses to the 21 June 2020 annular solar eclipse

On 21 June 2020, an annular solar eclipse will traverse the low latitudes from Africa to Southeast Asia. The highest latitude of the maximum eclipse obscuration is approximately 30°. This low-latitude solar eclipse provides a unique and unprecedented opportunity to explore the impact of the eclipse on the low-latitude ionosphere–thermosphere (I–T) system, especially in the equatorial ionization anomaly region. In this study, we describe a quantitative prediction of the impact of this upcoming solar eclipse on the I–T system by using Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodynamics General Circulation Model simulations. A prominent total electron content (TEC) enhancement of around 2 TEC units occurs in the equatorial ionization anomaly region even when this region is still in the shadow of the eclipse. This TEC enhancement lasts for nearly 4.5 hours, long after the solar eclipse has ended. Further model control simulations indicate that the TEC increase is mainly caused by the eclipse-induced transequatorial plasma transport associated with northward neutral wind perturbations, which result from eclipse-induced pressure gradient changes. The results illustrate that the effect of the solar eclipse on the I–T system is not transient and linear but should be considered a dynamically and energetically coupled system.