Are dishonest politicians more likely to be reelected? A Bayesian view

Politicians who lie are more likely to be reelected. That is what Janezic and Gallego (1) conclude. They asked 816 Spanish mayors to toss a coin, with only heads resulting in a desired personalized report of the study results. Mayors reported heads more often (68%) than expected by chance (50%), and reporting heads significantly predicted reelection in the subsequent elections. However, for the conclusion the authors rely exclusively on the P value. In a Bayesian reanalysis we demonstrate that the data do not warrant the original conclusions. Relying on P values has several disadvantages, including reliance on an arbitrary cutoff point, with small differences in P values leading to very different conclusions (2). Consider, for instance, the four statistical models used … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: b.j.verschuere{at}uva.nl. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1