A model to predict embryonic development and hatching in lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) under variable incubation temperatures

Abstract We developed an incremental growth-at-temperature model to predict hatch timing for lake whitefish under varying incubation temperatures. The model extends earlier approaches by incorporating a temperature-dependence for development stage at hatching. Testing using experimentally reared embryos from Lakes Huron and Simcoe demonstrates improved predictive accuracy compared to previous models for asymmetrically varying thermal regimes that mimic aspects of those encountered under real-world conditions. The simple calibration of the model to different populations and its ability to predict observed phenomena such as thermally-induced mass hatching and hatching synchronization makes it a useful tool for the evaluation of thermal impacts from industrial discharges and climate change.