Quantifying probabilities of exceeding the maximum Mach number in cruise flight using operational flight data

We present a novel approach that enables a single airline to quantify its probability of exceeding the maximum Mach number in cruise flight, a so-called Mach burst event, using the airline’s operational flight data. First, an incident model is developed that includes the physics-based relationships between aircraft-specific and environmental factors that determine the current aircraft’s Mach number. The statistics of the environmental factors, specifically changes in air temperature and wind speed, are compiled. We model dependencies between changes in air temperature and wind speed with copulas. Then, we use the incident model to determine critical gradients of air temperature and wind speed that cause a Mach burst. By sampling from the copulas that describe the occurrence probability for various gradients combinations, we estimate the probability of experiencing a Mach burst.