L'agriculture française et les marchés mondiaux : mythe ou passage obligé ?

[eng] French agriculture in the year 2000 : which markets and which products ? - After the exceptional growth rate of the 1970s, world trade in farm and food products has stagnated over the last five years. Recent long-term economic planning research, however, has led to the conclusion that expansion will pick up once again, but at rate slower by half compared with the 1970s. For Europe and France, this trend is all the more welcome in that it will apply particularly to North Africa, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, areas with which Europe already has close ties and which are close enough to Europe to afford a considerable logistic advantage. . The research of the Plan also pointed, however, to the existence of a production potential in the major exporting countries far superior to the expected increase in demand, with the resultant divergency between supply and demand bringing constant pressure to bear on prices. Under these circumstances, what options remain open to French agriculture? What productions will be able to stand up to international competition ? [fre] Apres une croissance exceptionnelle au cours des annees 70, les echanges de produits agricoles et alimentaires stagnent depuis cinq ans. Neanmoins, un travail recent du Plan, visant le long terme, conclut a une reprise de l'expansion, quoique a un rythme inferieur de moitie a celui de la decennie 70. Pour l'Europe et la France, cette tendance est d'autant mieux venue qu'elle touchera, notamment, l'Afrique du Nord-Moyen Orient et les pays d'Afrique sub-saharienne, zones avec lesquelles les relations de l'Europe sont deja etroites, et dont la proximite confere a la CEE un avantage logistique evident. . Mais le travail du Plan conclut aussi a l'existence d'un potentiel de production des grands pays exportateurs tres superieur au surcroit de demande attendue, le desajustement virtuel se traduisant en pression continue sur les prix. Quelles sontt dans ce contexte, les marges de manœuvre de l'agriculture francaise? . Quelles speculations pourront affronter la competition internationale?