Estimating the future number of disabled elderly people by using a model population

By using a model population the composition of the future elderly population [in the Netherlands] has been simulated. Demographic forecasts and forecasts on the level of educational attainment of elderly people were used to construct this model population. As the percentage of elderly people with disabilities is expected to fall due to an increasing level of educational attainment the number of dependent elderly people will over the next two decades increase much slower than the total number of elderly people. (EXCERPT) (SUMMARY IN ENG)