Is Social Distancing Policy Effective in Controlling COVID-19? An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Introduction: The social distancing plan is one of the ways that was implemented for management of COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the social distancing on reducing the daily new cases and deaths from COVID-19. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, the data of daily new cases and daily deaths were collected from 15/02/2020 to 19/04/2020. Changes in the level and trend of daily new cases and daily deaths before and after the implementation of social distancing plan were evaluated using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis in STATA software. Results: The post-intervention trend had a decrease of 102 new cases per day and 7 new deaths per day compared to the pre-intervention trend (p < 0.001). Moreover, in the post-intervention period, the daily new cases had a decrease of 58 new cases per day and 2 new deaths per day (p < 0.001). Conclusion: It Could be concluded that social distancing plan directly affects the new daily cases and new daily deaths.