A model for predicting the design work timing using an integrated moving average (ARIMA)

The article discusses the issues of automating the company standards' development for labor consumption taking into account the projects' uniqueness and the significant impact of the human factor on labor productivity, which can be indirectly measured at the stage of operational management with the pace and work intensity. In the proposed method, due to the higher frequency of information retrieval and the use of the integrated moving average model (ARIMA), at the early stage of the design work, it is possible to identify and predict their possible deviations from the planned time parameters, and then based on this, analyze and make the corrective management solutions to optimize their time parameters. This approach, combined with the leading design specialists' expert evaluations, makes it possible to set the planned values for the complexity and duration of work, which are then specified and updated during the specific project's implementation. The use of the methodology is considered in the context of the application for the collection and processing the large amounts of information of an intelligent design management system (IMS "Design") developed at DSTU.