Punishment Policy in the American States from 1890 to 2008: Convergence, Divergence, Synchronous Change, and Feed‐Forward Effects

This analysis of the patterns of change in the use of incarceration by the American states from 1890 through 2008 focuses on multiple themes particularly relevant to an understanding of policy arenas in which the social constructions of target populations play an important role. Specifically, the study examines whether the states have adopted more similar incarceration levels over time (converged), whether they tend to change in the same direction at the same time (synchronous change), and whether they tend to stay in the same relative positions vis-a-vis one another, such that the historical policy position has long-term implications for later policy positions (“feed-forward” effects). The results indicate that, in spite of a century of social, political, and economic integration, the policy positions of the states have not exhibited a sustained convergence toward a common level of incarceration, but have undergone cycles, with some periods of convergence followed by periods of divergence. Change has generally been synchronous—as states tend to move in the same direction at the same time as if propelled by national forces even though incarceration levels are determined by state and local policy and the use of discretion by criminal justice officials. The results also indicate a profound “feed-forward” effect in that the position of the states vis-a-vis one another historically has substantial predictive power for their position in subsequent years.