The S-Curve Discontinuity Theory Applied to Medicine to Explain Healthcare's Past and Predict Its Future

Abstract Developed in 1845 by Verhulst, the logistic growth curve is an “S” shaped sigmoid curve referring to the self-limiting population growth in ecology. The initial growth stage is exponential, followed by slowing of growth as saturation begins, and ending of growth at maturity. In geology, an uncertain period exists at the upper horizontal arm of the S-curve when a species utilizes its available resources, and either extinction or evolution by natural selection results. The S-curve has been used in biology, physics, mathematics, chemistry, economics, sociology, oncology, and statistics. The S-curve theory has been applied to medicine to describe the advancements in the 20 th century based on the diagnosis and treatment of disease (the “illness” model) and envision the future focused on disease prevention (the “wellness” model). We expand upon previous S-curve applications in medicine and discuss the obstacles facing the present-day healthcare industry and the numerous advancements that are imminent.