Possible Space Weather Influence on the Earth Wheat Markets

We consider the problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agricultural market through the chain of connections: "space weather" - "earth weather" - "agriculture crops" - "price reaction". We show that recently discovered new manifestation of the "space weather" - "earth weather" relations allow to revise a wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We point out that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only in the case of the simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in a selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in the selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of the agricultural market to a possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (Pustil'nik, Yom Din, 2004a, 2004b) including application of this approach to Medieval England wheat market (1250-1700) and to modern USA durum market (1910- 1992) showed real connections between wheat price bursts and space weather state with high confidence level. The aim of the present work is to answer the question, why wheat markets in one selected region may be sensitive to space weather factor, while in another region their reaction to this space weather is absolutely indifferent. To this aim we consider the distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather as a function of their localization in Europe in different climatic zones. We analyze a database of 95 European wheat markets in 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that the observed sensitivity of the wheat market to space weather effects is controlled, first of all, by the type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, and Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity, when excess of the high energy cosmic ray stimulate additional cloudiness and precipitation. In the same time wheat markets in the South Europe (Spain, Italy) show reliable sensitivity to space weather state in the opposite (maximum) phase of solar activity when a deficit of cosmic rays input into the atmosphere leads to a decrease of cloudiness and to an increase of the probability of drought weather periods. We demonstrate that a large part of the markets in Central Europe show a lack of any effects of sensitivity to space weather state and show that this asymmetry is in good accordance with model expectation based on the proposed approach. We discuss possible increasing of sensitivity of wheat markets to space weather effects in conditions of fast and drastic change of modern climate, caused by global warming of the Earth atmosphere with fast shift of numerous agriculture regions to the state of "high risk agriculture zone".