How does urbanization affect CO2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Abstract Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km × 5 km annual CO2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China’s central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the “2+26” cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.