Outlook for world oil into the 21st Century with emphasis on the period to 1990. Final report. [Two periods: 1976--1990 and 1990--2005]

A forecast is presented of oil supply and demand in the non-Communist world for two periods: 1976 to 1990 and 1990 to 2005. Oil is treated as the energy supply of last resort, the balancing item, with special emphasis on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Energy demand, based on forecast economic growths and energy/economic growth relationships is projected. This demand is assumed to be met to the maximum feasible extent from non-oil energy supplies (coal, gas, nuclear power, hydro and geothermal power, and other sources). The resultant total oil demand is then met first from non-OPEC oil supplies, in order to test the demand for and adequacy of OPEC oil supplies under different energy demand scenarios. The findings are that a gradual transition to non-oil sources of energy over the next 25 to 30 years is more likely than an extended oil shortage of crisis proportions.