Evaluating of the accurasy of cardiovascular events predicting using SCORE scale and ultrasound visualization of atherosclerotic plaque in patients of multi-disciplinary hospital in Saint-Petersburg: medium-term monitoring data

Aim. To compare the accuracy of predicting the risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events (CVE) based on SCORE scaling and ultrasound imaging of carotid atherosclerotic plaque (AP) in patients without manifested atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) in a multidisciplinary hospital. Material and methods. We examined 841 patients (353 men) (avearage age 54,9±8), with at least 1 traditional cardiovascular risk factor without manifested ACVD. Ultrasound examination of the carotid arteries was performed in all patients. Patients with nonstenotic AP constituted the AP+ group, and without AP — the AP-group (356 and 485 people, respectively). Median of follow-up time was 4 years, (minimum — 2, maximum — 6 years). The endpoints included: a verified diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome, chronic coronary artery disease, planned coronary revascularization, ischemic stroke, and/or transient ischemic attack, cardiac death. Results. Nonstenotic AP of carotid arteries was detected in 352 people (42%), including 64 (23%) in low and 182 (46%) in moderate SCORE risk. 127 CVE (178%) occurred during the follow-up, 84 (66% of the total) of them in the AP+ group. The actual frequency of development of the cumulative endpoint was significantly higher than the calculated rate (the ratio of actua predicted events was 1,6, 5,1 and 79 for high, moderate and low SCORE risk, respectively). According to the multivariate regression analysis, the OR for AP as a predictor of cardiovascular events cardiovascular events CVE was 2,54 (95% CI 1,6-4,04), and was significantly higher than the SCORE index (1,04, 95% CI 0,01-1,07). As a predictor of CVE, AP had the greatest value in the low SCORE risk group (the number of CVE in the low SCORE risk group was14 among patients with AP vs 10 among patients without AP, p=0,001). Conclusion. The use of SCORE scale underestimates the actual risk of CVE especially in patients with low and moderate calculated SCORE risk. Ultrasound visualization of AP of the carotid arteries in these patients predicts the risk of cardiovascular disease much more accurately.