Time-resolved, integrated analysis of clonal genome evolution in parthenogenetic animals and in cancer

Clonal genome evolution is a key aspect for parthenogenetic species and cancer. While many studies describe precise landscapes of clonal evolution in cancer, few studies determine the underlying evolutionary parameters from molecular data, and fewer integrate theory with data. We derived theoretical results linking mutation rate, time, expansion dynamics, transition to recurrence, and survival. With this, we inferred time-resolved estimates of evolutionary parameters from mutation accumulation, mutational signatures and selection. Using this framework we traced the speciation of the rapidly emerging and invasive marbled crayfish to a time window between 1947 and 1996, which is consistent with biological records. In glioblastoma samples, we determined tumor expansion patterns, and tumor cell survival ratio at resection. Interestingly, our results suggest that the expansion pattern in the primary tumor is predictive of the progress and time to recurrence. In addition, tumor cell survival was always higher after resection and was associated with the expansion pattern and time to recurrence. We further observed selection events in a subset of tumors, with longer and purifying-only selection phases in recurrent tumors. In conclusion, our framework allowed a time-resolved, integrated analysis of key parameters in clonally evolving genomes, and provided novel insights into the evolutionary age of marbled crayfish and the progression of glioblastoma.