Hospitalization Trajectories in Home- and Community-Based Services Recipients: The Influence of Physician and Social Care Density.

OBJECTIVES Repeated hospitalizations among older adults receiving Home- and Community-Based Services (HCBS) may indicate unmet medical and social needs. This study examined all-cause hospitalization trajectories and the association between area-level resource density for medical and social care and the trajectory group membership. METHODS The study participants included 11,223 adults aged 60 years or over who were enrolled in public HCBS programs in Michigan between 2008 and 2012. Data sources included the Michigan interRAI-Home Care, Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care Data, the American Community Survey, and the County Business Patterns from the Census Bureau. The group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify trajectories of hospitalization over 15 months. Correlates of the trajectories were examined using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS Four distinct hospitalization trajectory groups emerged: "never" (43.1%)-individuals who were rarely hospitalized during the study period, "increasing" (19.9%)-individuals who experienced an increased risk of hospitalization, "decreasing" (21.6%)-individuals with a decreased risk, and "frequent" (15.8%)-individuals with frequent hospitalizations. Older adults living in areas with a higher number of social service organizations were less likely to be on the "frequent" trajectory relative to the "decreasing" trajectory. The density of primary care physicians was not associated with the trajectory group membership. DISCUSSION Area-level social care resource density contributes to changes in 15-month hospitalization risks among older adult recipients of HCBS.