2012 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology Study on ignition probability of flammable materials after leakage accidents

It is a key step of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to estimate ignition probability of flammable materials after leakage accidents. This paper reviews the available literature and expert opinion on how to evaluate and determine ignition probability value, and it was detailedly discussed on the main influencing factors of ignition probability, including flammable material properties, mass flow rate of flammable materials spillage, ignition resources and ignition controls. Moreover, the operational and practical ignition probability value could be estimated from the all way of classifications of flammable material, mass flow rate, ignition resources, hazardous areas and ignition prevention and control measure. Furthermore, the more practical ignition probability model was put forward that the ignition probability was the maximum value of the probability decided by material properties (PMP), mass flow rate(PQ) and ignition resources(PIS) with the factor of preventing and controlling ignition (KIC). Finally, the further research was proposed to assign some feasible weigh factors of the ignition probability for flammable materials after leakage accidents.